Rain Moving Out 6/5

Michigan Weather Center

Yesterday, the high temperature was 78 degrees in the early morning hours, falling into the 60s as the day progressed. We had .80 of an inch of rain in Otsego.

The rain is currently moving through the southeast part of the state. There is an air quality alert for the northern counties.

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy has
declared an Air Quality Advisory die to elevated levels of smoke
from Canadian wildfires. Pollutants, in the form of fine particulates
(PM 2.5), are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
range.

The advisory is in effect for the following Michigan counties...
Mason...Lake...Osceola...Clare...Oceana...Newaygo...Mecosta...
Isabella

It is recommended that, when possible, you avoid strenuous outdoor
activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory
diseases like asthma. Monitor for symptoms such as wheezing,
coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in nose, throat,
and eyes. Reduce or eliminate activities that contribute to air
pollution, such as: outdoor burning, use of residential wood
burning devices.

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Weather History

1905: Torrential rains soaked much of the region. From four to six inches of rain on June 5th and 6th caused widespread flooding. Both Lansing and Grand rapids set records for daily rainfall in the month of June with 5.47 and 4.22 inches, respectively.

1930: A tornado moved across southern Clinton County from near Eagle to seven miles north of Lansing. One farm home was torn to splinters and scattered.

On June 5, 2024, an EF1 tornado impacted Livonia during the afternoon hours. It packed maximum winds of 95 mph as it tracked northeast from near the I-96 and M-14 interchange to near 7 Mile and Middlebelt Roads. Unfortunately the tornado caused 1 fatality and 1 injury when a tree fell on a home.

On June 5, 2005, widespread severe weather hit Southeast Michigan. Thirty-four warnings were issued with 52 distinct severe weather event reported including one F0 tornado near Hemlock. Hail was up to golf ball size, and wind gusts up to 80 mph were estimated in Bay City, Hemlock, New Hudson, and Monroe.

On June 5, 1998, the high temperature only rose to 53 degrees in Detroit. Scattered showers during the afternoon forced temperatures into the 40s, and spotters reported sleet with some of them.

In 1953, tornadoes hit both Wayne and Saginaw Counties. An F0 tornado hit Wayne County at 5:05 PM and an F2 tornado hit Saginaw County at 7:00 PM and caused $25,000 in damage

Also on June 5, 1905 an estimated F5 tornado moved through Tuscola and Sanilac counties in the middle of the afternoon. The tornado moved from Colling to McGregor. The worst of the damage was near Shabbona in Sanilac County where at least three farms were destroyed. Five deaths and 40 injuries resulted from this tornado.

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Forecast Discussion

Thursday: Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 75. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75. East northeast wind around 7 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northeast wind around 6 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Sunday: A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Monday: A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

- More showers and possibly thunderstorms tonight

Scattered light showers continue to drift NEWD across the
forecast area late this afternoon, in response to slow-moving cold
front, an axis of elevated PWATs, and some lingering RRQ support
from departing upper level jet. Given progress of front and
daytime heating, the strongest diurnal storms late this afternoon
/non-severe/ will remain well SE of the GRR forecast area.

Later this evening and tonight, the southern part of the
aforementioned cold front stalls out /becomes almost stationary/
as it parallels the upper level flow. The HRRR/NAM then show a
weak wave developing on front and drifting NE across IL/IN and
eventually reach northern OH by late tonight. This will result
in a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms for many tonight.
This trend is already showing up on regional radars, as the next
slug rainfall can be seen moving NEWD from IL into IN. The HREF
suggests respectable rainfall is likely SE of a BEH-LAN-MBS
line...with a ~70% chance of amounts exceeding 1.0 in and a ~30-40%
chance of amounts exceeding 1.5 in for the 24 hr period ending
12Z Thursday /especially far SE in the vicinity of BTL and JXN/.
This will need to be monitored for minor flooding concerns.

- Mostly dry and seasonable for Thursday/Friday/Saturday

Showers will be lingering/ongoing over SE parts of forecast area
early Thursday, though they should end quickly as the front
continues it`s slow EWD push. Weak surface high pressure will then
build into the Great Lakes beginning late Thursday. The GFS
ensemble continues to suggest a northward push of modest
instability and moisture /and a small risk for showers/ Friday and
Friday night over far southern Lower MI. This is in response to a
weak short wave embedded in an otherwise quasi-zonal flow aloft.
All in all, expect mainly dry weather - albeit under partly to
mostly cloudy skies - Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures
will be close to seasonal norms... in the 70s.

- Unsettled weather returns by early next week

Ensembles have come into better agreement today on the timing and
strength of a SEWD moving upper wave expected to amplify over the upper
Great Lakes by late Sunday. Forcing from upper wave, cooler air aloft,
coupled with the June sun angle, will support diurnally enhanced
showers and storms as early as late Sunday likely continuing into
Monday. Ensembles suggest mainly dry weather for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Daytime highs Sunday through Wednesday will remain
mostly in the 70s /again, close to normal for early-mid June/.