Mild Pattern Through Friday
With much excitement, I bring to you a forecast of warm weather to the state for the next few days. Today will be the best day with little or no rain for southern Michigan and temperatures predicted to be in the low to mid-70s and lots of sunshine. Showers return tonight through the rest of the week with a possible thunderstorm to add to the mix. This is the time of the year those nasty stinkbugs try to get into the house for the winter to keep warm. They will generally hang around your doors waiting for it to open so be vigilant.
With Halloween right around the corner, the CPC is showing a regular forecast of cold and wet conditions:
Forecast
Today
A 20 percent chance of showers before 9 am. Sunny, with a high near 74. South southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 3 am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 58. South southwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Wednesday
Showers, mainly between 9 am and 3 pm. Steady temperature around 61. Breezy, with a south-southwest wind of 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers are likely, mainly after 3 a.m. Cloudy, with a low of around 58. South wind 8 to 13 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9 a.m., then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. South southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
Showers, mainly after 9 pm. Low around 60. Breezy. The chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday
Showers are likely, mainly after 3 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Breezy. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
Showers are likely, mainly before 9 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 45.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 55.
Saturday Night
Showers are likely, mainly after 3 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 41.
Sunday
Showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50.
Sunday Night
Showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 37.
Monday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
U.S.A and Global Events for October 24th:
1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington – Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851. Click HERE for more information from the Weather Prediction Center.
Forecast Discussion
Breezy southwesterly winds expected today and Wednesday on the
west side of a sprawling eastern CONUS high, which is transporting
seasonably warm air and richer moisture through the area ahead of
a frontal trough that stretches from the northern Great Lakes to
central Plains.
Elevated thunderstorms based from moisture within the 850-800 mb
layer may roll through northern portions of the CWA later this
morning. MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg distributed from below the hail
growth layer and entirely through it, along with some upper level
wind shear, may support a threat of larger hail mainly north of
US-10 where SPC has outlined a marginal risk. Most HREF member
models are focusing subsequent waves of thunderstorms well north
of the CWA later today into tonight as the warm front likely
surges north, while southern portions of Michigan could maintain
partly sunny skies through the day and boost temperatures well
into the 70s.
Rain becomes likely over much of the area late tonight into much
of Wednesday as a restrengthening low-level jet transports
moisture toward Michigan from the southern plains. Instability
looks more meager during this time frame and QPF is not
particularly heavy.
- Scattered showers/storms into Wednesday night into Thursday night
Moisture will continue to stream into the region Wednesday night as a
southwest low level jet strengthens to 40 to 50 knots. PWAT`s climb
to over 1.5 inches. The most favorable elevated instability and
convergence remains north and west of the CWA. Thus we are
anticipating most of the convection to remain scattered in this
period. There will be a weakening mid level vort max moving in
Thursday so that may play a role in the overall coverage of the
convection. How the convection evolves prior to this period will
have an influence during this period so we will need to monitor
trends closely.
- Cold front pushes through Friday afternoon
We will need to monitor the warm sector Friday. Strong wind fields
will be present so we may see a high shear/low CAPE environment
develop during the afternoon. Only limited lift is seen aloft and
the area is progged to be on the entrance side of the low level jet
which is not the most favorable location for low level lift. Thus
some uncertainty exists with the strength of any convection. The
winds could turn gusty as it will not take much mixing to generate
stronger gusts, especially earlier in the day as a 40 to 50 knot low
level jet will be around.
- Much cooler for the weekend
The surface front slips just south of the CWA Saturday and into
Sunday and stalls out. This will allow cooler air to flow in from
the north. Meanwhile a wave develops on the stalled out front in the
mid MS Valley. Rain will likely spread back into the CWA by Sunday
as this feature tracks into Southern Lower MI. Thus we will have
falling temps and increasing POPs forecasted for Saturday into
Sunday.