Chance of Storms 7/16
Michigan Weather
We continue to experience a dry summer with below-normal rainfall. Here is the graphic for Otsego.
A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, but those are expected to be sub-severe. An additional line of storms is likely later this evening. Those storms could become severe with gusty winds 60-70 mph, the biggest threat, and locally heavy rain possible too.
Weather History
1945: The second morning of record cool weather in five days produces low temperatures of 42 degrees at Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
1986: A plane carrying executives from Holland to Muskegon crashed while landing in heavy fog. The pilot had descended below approach minimums and the plane struck two trees about two miles short of the runway. Three people were killed, including the pilot. Three others were injured.
On July 16, 2021, heavy rain and urban flooding were reported across the Metro Detroit area and Detroit Metro Airport from the daily rainfall record with 2.20 inches. Some areas in Wayne and Washtenaw Counties received over 3 inches of rain.
On July 16, 1980, between the hours of 8:30AM and 9:30AM, a powerful derecho swept through Southeast Lower Michigan. Winds were estimated to be up to 100 mph in Washtenaw county and up to 150 mph in Wayne county. Several observers remarked about the horrid dark green color the sky took on as the squall moved overhead. This storm blew out windows in the Renaissance Center. There was only one reported injury, and it was caused by the wind forcing a woman into a revolving door!
Forecast Discussion
Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11am and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 8 mph.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. West northwest wind 10 to 13 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. North northwest wind 7 to 9 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East southeast wind around 7 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Saturday Night: A chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Monday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
The Air Quality Advisory is in effect for the following
Michigan counties:
Allegan, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, and Van Buren
As wildfire smoke exits the region, leftover chemical precursors
are present which could trigger elevated ozone levels. Original
forecasts of early cloud cover during Wednesday now look less
likely as projected West Michigan lake dynamics look to delay the
cloud arrival.
Minus the cloud coverage, elements such as wind direction,
temperature, dew points, and upper air conditions all point towards
the likelihood that elevated ozone concentrations, in the USG range,
could occur throughout those counties.
It is recommended that, when possible, you avoid strenuous outdoor
activities, especially those with respiratory diseases such as asthma.
People and businesses are urged to avoid activities which can lead to
ozone formation.
These activities include: refueling vehicles or topping off when
refueling; using gasoline powered lawn equipment; using charcoal
lighter fluid.
Positive activities include: driving less; telecommuting; walking or
bike riding; delaying or combining errands; using water-based
paints.- Strong to severe storms possible this evening
Going to be an unsettled day with three potential periods of
showers/storms for the area today through tonight.
The scattered showers and isolated storms ongoing first this morning
are a result of a weak short wave that is drifting NE just south of
the area, and being at the leading edge of better warm and unstable
air. These showers and storms will tend to dissipate toward daybreak
as the upper short wave will move east of the area.
The second batch of storms today will be air mass type of showers
and storms that will form starting toward noon, and last until just
before sunset. The aforementioned arrival of the warmer and more
unstable air mass will be available for diurnal heating to push
temperatures to fire showers and storms near any type of
convergence. The initial convergence may be right along the lake
breeze convergence. Weak deep layer shear of 20-25 knots this
afternoon will lead to mainly pulse type of storms this afternoon,
spreading outflow boundaries from the storms. Small hail, wind gusts
of 40 mph or so, and heavy downpours will be the main threats this
afternoon.
The main show looks to be a mid-late evening timing for the area. A
MCV that is currently associated with convection will translate ENE,
and fire additional convection over IA, WI, and IL this afternoon.
We will see the MCV is some way approach the area by mid evening.
There is a decent amount of uncertainty with regards to how much
convection makes it this far east.
What we do know is that the atmosphere should remain quite unstable
until the convection across the lake and MCV arrive here. Mean MU
CAPE values from the HREF are forecast to still be up around 1500+
J/kg for a lot of the area. We also know that deep layer shear
values increase with the arrival of the wave/MCV up to around 35-40
knots. This is more than enough for organized storms. We are in full
agreement with the upgrade of the western portion of the area to a
Slight Risk by the SPC, in a conditional sense of storms are present
or not.
The uncertainty comes with what shape is the MCV/upper wave in as it
arrives. The further north over our area, the better the forcing
from the wave is expected, but instability is less. As you head
south, instability is the highest, but forcing is the least. It
really ends up being how far south the sufficient forcing will be to
maintain storms over the area. That is the million dollar question,
and we will continue to monitor the latest trends.
- Cooler and drier Thursday-Friday
The MCV/wave moving through tonight will pass by to our east by
daybreak on Thursday. The result of this is that the sfc cold front
is pushed well through the area (about 2/3rds through) by 12z
Thursday. With brief ridging behind the wave and it being the
coolest portion of the day, not expecting much precipitation with
the front Thursday morning. The only thing to help it briefly is
another short wave moving across Northern Lower.
The stronger gradient behind the front will usher in much cooler
air, and cloud cover will keep temps from rising too much on
Thursday. Highs will likely stay in the 70s for both Thursday and
Friday with 850 mb temperatures dropping to around +9 to +11C. High
pressure moving directly overhead on Friday will clear the area out
with the front well south of the area.
- Rain chances Saturday
We continue to see a short wave that is expected to lift out of an
upper low over Baja California and California itself. This wave has
continue to be shown to bring the front to our south back up to near
the area with low pressure moving across the area. This will supply
the area with shower and storm chances centered on Saturday. We
should dry out for Sunday and Monday as the front drops south of the
area again.
Quite a bit uncertainty exists for the area regarding details of the
forecast starting Monday night and Tuesday. We start seeing heights
building toward the area again as the heat dome to our SW starts to
build/expand over the country. This set up is one that helps to
facilitate a ring of fire pattern. The axis of the ring of fire is
uncertain, but it will be close enough that we could see one or more
MCS` potentially affect the area. Mid-late July is after all about
the peak of MCS activity for our area under the ring of fire
pattern.
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Storms this afternoon are not expected to
become severe. Storms this evening have the potential to become
strong to severe. Damaging winds of 60 mph or greater will be the
main threat, along with locally heavy rainfall.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Thunderstorms will become possible once again on Saturday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will be possible this evening.