An Odd Winter!

An Odd Winter
Boy, this has been one very odd winter season. While Grand Rapids has recorded 81.5” of snow fall most of that fell in 3 events. The first one was November 15 to the 20th the 2nd event was December 15th to the 18th with a 3 day break and then the 22nd to the 26th and the 3rd event January 22nd to the 31st in the snowy periods snow fell every day but for the winter season the ground was snow free the first 15 days of December and then again the first 3 weeks of January. There was a total of 17” on the ground on December 25th only to be all gone by the 30th. The snow fall amount around west Michigan so far this winter season are that 81.5” at Grand Rapids, 41.0” at Muskegon, 42” at Kalamazoo and 38.6” at Lansing. The 30 year average of 1” or more on the ground at Grand Rapids is 67. So far this year just 36 days have had 1” or more on the ground. For 3” the 30 year average is 44 days so far this winter the number is 31. For 5” or more on the ground the 30-year average is 29 this winter season so far 21. And for 8” the 30 year average is 12 this winter season there have been 11 so far. And for 12” or more the average is 4 and that is how many Grand Rapids has had this winter season. The mean temperature at Grand Rapids for December 2022 was a 30.1° For January the mean was a mild 31.7° If with the mild temperature that the rest of February look to have can bring the mean up to 30 or better this winter season will be only the 4 time in Grand Rapids recorded history that the mean for the winter months of December, January and February have all been 30 or better. The other winters were 1931/32, 1920/21 and 2001/02. Now how has this winter been for the AWSSI? Well here in Grand Rapids this odd winter has gone from extreme to severe to average and is now at moderate. Most other locations in Lower Michigan now have a AWSSI of mild with only GR and Ann Arbor being moderate at this time. In the state of Michigan only Sault Ste Marie, Marquette and Ironwood have an index of Average.
We now have 10 days of February 2023 in the record books and the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 28.0(+3.3) there has been 1.15” of precipitation and just 0.4” of snow fall. At Lansing the mean so far in 28.9(+5.0) there has been 1.10” of precipitation and just a trace of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean there is 29.0(+2.9) with 0.72” precipitation and just a trace of snow fall.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
339 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2023

LATEST UPDATE…
DISCUSSION/MARINE

DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2023

— SUNNY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER INTO TUE —

THIS WEEKEND, WE ARE GOING TO MAKE UP FOR SOME OF THE LACK OF
SUNSHINE BACK IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH QUITE DRY AIR, HAS CLEARED THE AREA OUT NICELY
EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT, AND
THE SFC RIDGE HAS MOVED BY, A LACK OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT TAKING OUT LAKE EFFECT WILL KEEP CLOUDS FROM BEING MUCH
OF A PROBLEM THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE DO STILL HAVE A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
WORST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE SOME SPRINKLES ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE
STRONG LIFT, MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS WAVE. WHAT MOISTURE THERE
IS DOES NOT LINE UP WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
WAVE IS GONE BY THE TIME THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES.

THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT A TEMPORARY STOP ON
MODERATING TEMPS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES BY, WE WILL
SEE MILDER TEMPS ALOFT MOVE BACK IN, AND SUNSHINE RETURN FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE IN.

— RAIN TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED —

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA. THAT
SCENARIO IS ONE WHERE ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET FOR RAIN, WITH ONLY WARMING TEMPS AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
AIR STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CLEARING SKIES FOR WED
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY TO THE NE. THIS, COMBINED
WITH MILD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE DOWN THIS WAY COULD ALLOW FOR QUITE
A WARM DAY BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE. THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY KEEP A LOW CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AS FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO STALL OUT UP THAT WAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD END THERE TOO.

— ANOTHER SYSTEM THU-FRI WITH RANGE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES POSS. —

WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. THIS SETUP
WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WET SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA, WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES POSSIBLE UP NORTH NOW.

THIS SYSTEM A FEW DAYS AGO WAS SHOWING SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
NO SURPRISE IN A SITUATION WHERE THE EJECTING LOW ENDS UP CLOSED UP
LONGER THAN THE MODELS ANTICIPATE EARLY, AND SHIFTS THE STORM TRACK
TO THE NW. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THIS PAST THU’S SYSTEM.

THE OTHER FACTOR IN THIS IS THAT THE COLDER AIR INCHES CLOSER TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TUE NIGHT/WED SYSTEM. WHEN THE BIG PUSH OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR COMES IN WITH THE THU SYSTEM, THE COLDER AIR WILL UNDERCUT
THIS UP NORTH, INTRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES. WE ARE
LOOKING AT SOME SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN UP ALONG THE U.S.-10
CORRIDOR. THIS IS NOT LOCKED IN YET, BUT THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS HAVE BEEN SETTLING IN ON THIS FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE EXACT AREA OF EXACT P-TYPE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE LAST SYSTEM ALSO
THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE BY LATE THU AFTERNOON, AND CHANGE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE
A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THU NIGHT AND FRI, BUT IT IS
TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS ON THAT YET.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids
Today
Sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a southwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 27. West southwest wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 42. West southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
Tuesday Night
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Breezy.
Wednesday
A chance of rain before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Thursday
Rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Breezy.
Thursday Night
Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy.
Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Blustery
Detailed Forecast for Lansing
Today
Sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 27. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 46. West southwest wind around 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 42. West wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.
Tuesday Night
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 44. Breezy.
Wednesday
A chance of rain before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Breezy.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Thursday
Rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Breezy.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Breezy.