Air Quality Alerts -Chance of Rain & Storms 7/4
SW Michigan Forecast
Air Quality Alert
...Air Quality Advisory for July 4, 2025...
The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and
Energy (EGLE) has declared an Air Quality Advisory for July 4, 2025,
for elevated levels of ozone along the Lake Michigan shoreline.
Pollutants within those areas are expected to be in the Unhealthy for
Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) range.
The Air Quality Advisory is in effect for the following Michigan
counties:
Allegan, Berrien, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, Van Buren
Ample sunshine, surface temperatures in the 80s and favorable winds
will create a conducive environment for Ozone development along the
Lake Michigan shoreline on July 4th.Weather History
1911: The phrase Hot as the Fourth of July gains new meaning as temperatures soar to near 100 degrees, for Michigan's hottest Independence Day on record.
1969: Nature's fireworks turn violent as severe thunderstorms form in the evening and drop several tornadoes across Lower Michigan. More than 60 people are injured, most of them from a tornado that hit Flat Rock in southern Wayne County. This tornado destroyed a tile factory, carrying sheet metal over a mile. Another tornado injured eleven people about four miles east of Jackson as it damaged a dozen mobile homes.
1974: Tornadoes strike Lower Michigan during the early afternoon. One person is injured as a tornado damages several houses between Charlotte and Potterville in Eaton County. Tornadoes also damage barns and outbuildings in Huron and Tuscola Counties.
1977: A widespread severe weather outbreak hit Lower Michigan with tornadoes and downbursts. Two people were injured and almost a million dollars in damage was done. A tornado injured one person and destroyed two mobile homes and one barn near Maple Ridge in Arenac County. Another person was injured by a tornado at Otisville in Genesee County as four mobile homes were destroyed there. Two homes and a camper unit were heavily damaged as a tornado moved from southern Isabella County into northern Montcalm County, ending northeast of Vestaburg.
2003: The July 4th holiday turns tragic as seven people drown in rip currents on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. A line of thunderstorms earlier in the day had produced strong winds across the middle of the lake, and the dangerous currents formed several hours later.
On July 4, 2012, the temperature rose to 102 degrees in Detroit, a record for the day and its hottest temperature in nearly a quarter of a century. The temperature in Flint also reached the century mark.
Also on July 4, 1977, the "Independence Day Derecho of 1977" left a path of destruction from Minnesota to Ohio. Winds of up to 115 mph destroyed property and leveled forests over Wisconsin. By the time the derecho had reached southeast Michigan, winds had weakened to 60 to 70 mph. The storm did, however, spawn F1 tornadoes in Genesee, Lapeer, and Monroe counties.
Also on July 4, 1957, the strongest tornado since 1950 in Livingston County occurred at 6:55 PM. This tornado was categorized as an F4 and caused 4 injuries and up to $500,000 in damage. Also on this day in 1957, another F4 tornado swept through Oakland County, injuring two people.
Forecast Discussion
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the day today. Severe
weather is not expected but lightning is a threat to those
outdoors during any thunderstorm.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Hot and humid conditions are likely on Saturday, with temperatures
climbing into the lower 90s and the heat index reaching the mid
90s.Independence Day: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Light and variable wind.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Light south southwest wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South southwest wind around 7 mph.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night: A chance of thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85.
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Thursday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
- Scattered Showers and Storms Possible Today
Despite upper-level ridging, there is about 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE spreading into the area as warm air advection brings
pockets of higher moisture and a few clouds within the 850-800 mb
layer that is rather uncapped. Scattered showers and storms may
bubble up today in the vicinity of a stationary-turning-warm
front draped over West and Mid Michigan. HREF member models offer
fair confidence on a WSW-to-ESE moving threat area for storms this
morning through mid-late afternoon between western and south-
central portions of Lower Michigan, perhaps latching onto the
effect of mid-level wind and wave perturbations resulting from
the upstream convection over Wisconsin. By dusk this evening,
precip probability appears lower but still around 10 percent.
- Showers and Storms Possible Saturday Night into Sunday
Mid level wave and surface cold front arriving Sunday morning may
touch off scattered showers and storms. High PW would favor
locally heavier downpours where storms. Deep layer shear will be
lacking, though low level wind fields 30-35 knots and 0-3 km shear
potentially 20 knots would favor some potential for spots of gustier
winds.
- Hot Weekend, Then Slightly Cooler
Temperatures today may be kept below 90 if clouds and showers are
more prevalent, though dew points climbing to 65 to 70 would put
the heat index into the lower 90s. Saturday still looks hot and
humid, with temperatures in the lower 90s and a heat index in the
mid 90s. This does bring at least moderate concern for heat
stress for those vulnerable to heat, such as those active outdoors
or without air conditioning. Behind Sunday`s cold front, dew points
fall into the mid 50s to low 60s for Monday and Tuesday.